BITCOIN (BTC / USD) Maximum Bullish Cycle 160,000 dollars. Double bull cycle like 2012, 2013. Key Indicator
In the bullish 2012 2013 cycle for bitcoin we saw 2 highs that were marked by the Pi Cycle indicator.
I wondered what Pi Cycle could tell us about the next bullish cycle and I want to share it to hear your opinion.
Look at where we would be in 2013 and I found it, and this is the result.
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Much is being said that we already saw a maximum in April 2021 and we still need to see another, repeating the cycle of 2013.
We look at history, we analyze it to be able to point us to a possible price path. The same thing does not necessarily have to be repeated.
I compare the 2012, 2013 cycle with the current Bitcoin cycle
For this analysis we will have to set certain conditions.
1- We will see a new high again in this Bitcoin cycle.
2- The lines of the Pi Cycle indicator will cross again at this maximum, as it has done so far.
3- I will compare the cycles from the price retest, to the yellow middle line, once the upward cycle begins
4- We look for points where in the same cycle have the same separation between lines MA
Analyzing Pi Cycle
The lines of the Pi Cycle indicator intersect indicating a possible high point of the price of Bitcoin in a bullish cycle.
It consists of 2 Average lines, one of 350 periods, a green line and another MA of 111 periods, daily chart
Analyzing graph year 2012, 2013
As we see in the 2012, 2013 cycle there were 2 bullish cycles with 2 highs marked by the indicator.
Notice in the graph the width of the separation between the middle lines.
The width of separation between the 2 lines is fundamental the more separated, the more the price will have to rise so that the lines touch again, or the more it has to be delayed in time.
Year 2012
I will compare the cycles from the retesting of the price, to the yellow middle line, next to the halving, with the price in a bullish cycle, where the width between the lines remains at the same distance
That is, I will look for a point, where the price meets the yellow line and that point sets me a distance between the yellow and green MA lines, in this case 30% between lines, to compare the period 2012, 2013
As we see the price rose 2100% in the first bullish cycle from the point I have set.
And it took 137 days.
Year 2013
I repeat the search, with a distance between the MA lines of 30%
I look for in 2013 the comparison with the moment of 2012 and I discover the following
-
That the price rises a little less than half goes from 2100% to 1000%
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It takes 62 days to reach the maximum a little less than half, it goes from 137 days 2012 to 62 days 2013
Conclusion
For a certain width of averages in this case 30% so that a new maximum is reached in half the time, you do not need to make the same percentage of increase. At half the time it will reach the maximum in half the percentage.
That is, the percentage of price increase for a new maximum, indicated by Pi Cycle, depends on the width of the separation between bands and the time it takes to achieve it.
Year 2021
Same process as 2012
I will compare the cycles from the retesting of the price, to the yellow middle line, next to the halving, with the price in a bullish cycle, where the width between the lines remains at the same distance
That is, I will look for a point, where the price meets the yellow line and that point sets me a distance between the yellow and green MA lines, in this case 90% between lines, to compare the 2021 period.
Look for a point similar to the current one in the previous cycle, that's why I chose the first retest to the yellow line.
As we see the price rose approximately 600% in the first bullish cycle from the point I have set.
And it took 257 days.
Because it took more days than the 2012 cycle, it is because the width between the MA bands is greater, going from 30% to 90%.
From what we saw that:
The percentage of price increase for a new high, indicated by Pi Cycle, depends on the width of the separation between bands and the time it takes to achieve it.
Second cycle 2021
I repeat the search, with a distance between the MA lines of 90 '%
I look for in 2021 the comparison with the first cycle of 2021 and I discover the following
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That the price of Bitcoin could rise by 300% to $ 160,000 if it repeats the 2012 cycle, 213
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And it would take 128 days to reach the maximum, first half of February
Conclusion
There are many analysts who predict the maximum for the end of this year, with this indicator if we follow what happened in the 2012 cycle, 2013 is indicating that the new maximum of the cycle would be in 2022.
For a new maximum of this cycle to occur in this year, we would have to quickly see the upper MA (green line) overcome in a short time, which is around 78,000 dollars. This would make the lines start to come together.
If we repeat the 2012-2013 cycle, this indicator is telling us that we should wait
What you think?
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READ DISCLAIMER: this publication / analysis is only for general information purposes. I am not a professional trader and I will never be a financial advisor. The material in this publication does not constitute any trading advice of any kind. This is the way I see the paintings and what my ideas are. Perform your own analysis before making an investment decision. Use money that you are willing to lose if you make an investment. If you make exchanges or investments after reading this publication, it is entirely at your own risk. I am not responsible for any of your gains or losses. By reading this publication, you acknowledge and agree that you will never hold me liable for any of your profits or losses.
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