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Add India To The List Of Falling Fertility

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This is a major story that is being overlooked by much of the media. It is really no surprise since they want to promote fear and an agenda, while not really providing people with information that is useful. Of course, the financial media is no different than the mainstream.

One of the biggest issues is one of demographics. Those who are professional demographers were aware of what was taking place yet the knowledge was not known to many outside of that small arena.

Nevertheless, over the last year, we are seeing a lot of evidence that is telling us we are heading for a major problem.

The issue is low fertility rates. It is something that was known in Japan but not really thought of too much outside of there. We need, however, to awaken to what is taking place.

Overpopulation Myth

Remember when the fear was overpopulation. This was something that started in the 1970s and was ratcheted up with each passing decade. Over time, as the population grew, the media was promoting the idea of overcrowding, starvation, and mass poverty. Of course, all of this was bullcrap but it didnt stop them from pushing the idea.

This was something that was picked up by those on YouTube also. Go do a search and watch some videos from roughly the 2012 or 2013 time people. You will find many talking about how the population growth is going to cause many problems for humanity.

What happened is that projections did not match reality. One of the biggest factors in population growth is the poverty rate. Poorer people have more children. This could be due to the fact they tend to be economies based around agriculture, requiring more hands to sustain the family. Also, death rates before adulthood tend to be higher. Finally, the absence of quality health care adds a few other factors.

The reverse of this is what is really important. As the level of poverty drops, so do the number of children each woman has. Women in wealthier countries have less kids.

Thus, global poverty rates tell a great deal of the story.

Notice the accelerating trend. This is not surprising since we have an accelerating rate of economic change. Technology is moving the entire world forward as a massive pace. More than half of the wealth ever created occurred in the last 20 years.

Of course, it is not spread evenly. When we look at a map of the highest areas of poverty, we also see a correlation to those with the highest birth rates. It is well known that sub-Sahara Africa leads in the later category. Notice how it aligns with this chart.

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First China, Then India

China came out with its census and pegged stated its fertility rate. Many demographers who are familiar with the situation do not believe the CCP numbers (good practice). Some are even targeting near South Korea, around 1.0. Nevertheless, here is what we see:

The number of newborns in China in 2020 was down from 14.65 million in 2019, and China’s total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, a relatively low level, according to the results of the seventh national population census released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.

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This is the most populous country in the world. Many are forecasting that India will take the title in a few years.

Now we find out India is facing its own problems.

India's national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen below 2.0 for the first time, as per the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The findings covered 11 states and three union territories that were not included in the first set of data released in December 2020.

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Now we see the second most populous country in the world not replacing itself.

Why is this such a problem?

If the trends continue, these nations will face an aging workforce. That means the economic output, per individual is going to decline. The problem arises from the fact that as the population aging, a greater percentage require more social services. It places the economic burden on the younger workers to keep the productivity up.

Unfortunately, if the numbers are skewed too much in favor of the older ones, it is impossible to do. This affects the ability to fill jobs, pay for social services, and not suffer an economic breakdown. Also, civil unrest can often ensue as younger workers are upset about such a large portion of their productivity going to others.

Thus far, no country has seen the trend reverse. When we look at Japan, Italy, and Russia, they are all starting the decline. The next wave is Germany, Spain, Canada, South Korea, China and possibly Britain.

It is important to note, we just listed some of the largest economies in the world.

Imagine the burden in pension plans alone. How are they going to keep funding them when there are more people drawing from then compared to paying in?

Technology can assist to a degree. This is one thing that helped Japan keep itself afloat. However, outside the United States, no country can rival Japan in technological capabilities. This means that the other countries are going to face massive deflationary pressures, some that could rival the Great Depression.

A lot of people believe that inflation is bad and deflation is good. Anyone who things that does not understand what a deflationary spiral looks like. Periods like that are very difficult to deal with. And when it is, at least in part, a result of demographics, it is a situation that is impossible to turn around.

Just look at Japan and 20 years of QE "money printing". Does that look like a country that is suffering from hyperinflation.


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