This is by far the worst bull market I’ve experienced, and I’ve got almost two cycles under my belt. I say almost because I stumbled into crypto in mid-2017, when the market had already seen its first altcoin season and was chilling before the final leg up, which happened in late 2017.
2020-2021 was the easiest of them all, but even then, aside from some cash I banked thanks to a couple of airdrops and the rewards I scored with Hive, I didn’t make life-changing money in crypto during my second cycle either.
Yeah, I’m that dumb, and as painful as it is to admit, that’s the harsh, cold truth. Now, we’re a bit over a year past the latest halving, and we still can’t say we’ve had a proper altcoin season. Sure, a few altcoins crushed it in 2024, but the overall altcoin market is weak as fuck.
There’s not much hype around Bitcoin either, and it’s easy to see why. Retail’s mostly tapped out. $100,000 is a shit-ton of cash for one golden acorn, and that scares off a lot of retail. We love round numbers, but hardly anyone can afford a whole Bitcoin anymore.
To put it in perspective, you could buy two apartments or a decent house in my town for that kind of money. Who’s gonna swap that for one Bitcoin? BlackRock, that’s who. From what I saw on Twitter today, it looks like BlackRock added over 60,000 BTC to its stash in the past month or so.
BTC ain’t “the people’s money” anymore. It’s an asset mostly held by investment funds and high-net-worth folks. Sure, there might be a few OGs with coins from their early days, but in my opinion, hardly anyone’s held through a decade of insane volatility.
What about alts, you ask? Well, based on past cycles, when BTC dominance hits around 70%, we usually get a solid altcoin season that makes us rich (at least on paper).
Right now, dominance is sitting just above 65%. Does it have to hit 70% every cycle?
Hell no. Every cycle’s been different so far, so I wouldn’t bank on 70% dominance before expecting an altcoin season. ETH and DOGE used to be solid signals for altcoin seasons in past cycles, but they’ve been duds this time around.
All we can do is wait and take profits when our bags start pumping. Until then, it’s Bitcoin season. Nice seeing BTC at $100,000 for the hundredth time this cycle—here’s hoping our alts go hard in the coming months too. May we all get rich this cycle and short every damn bullshit memecoin to zero when the bear market hits.
Just my two cents...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
