25 cents!
It's a very important price point for Hive for whatever reason.
We hit 25 cents a LOT.
- Summer 2020 shelf
- 3 times in Feb 2021
- Summer 2021
- Wake of the FTX collapse December 2022
- Breakdown Summer 2024
- Breakout November 2024
- Hit two dozen times over the last 10 weeks.
Of all Hive's price points 25 cents is the most prolific.
And you'll notice that even though it doesn't feel like it, we spend may more time above 25 cents than below it, and the area above the "curve" is exponentially larger than the area below this line. Any price less than 25 cents has always been a good place to buy as long as the buyer can wait out the downswing.
Defending the Quarter: Part 1
The first time I brought this up was December 21, 2022. Hive had just dipped hard down to 27 cents and I made this post saying we should defend 25 cents if it got that low. By that time we had already made a small recovery back to 30 cents, but alas, one week later we were at the dreaded 25 cent level... and that was the pico bottom for the entire year of 2023. Anyone who bought there could have made an easy x2 scalp as we pumped right over 50 cents 5 weeks later in Feb.
Unfortunately 2024 has not been nearly as kind as we would have hoped, and most alts have just been floundering about doing god-knows-what. Our fresh lows into the 16-17 cent range were particularly annoying, but hopefully those days are behind us. Considering where we are in the cycle I have to assume they are. But if not it's just another one of those annoyances we'll have to deal with.
230 sats!
Hive is once again testing the all time lows in terms of its unit value against big dawg BTC. It's getting to the point where I have to think about any assets I have lying around that I can cannibalize into our humble network. I'm basically all in at 200 sats, which can happen if BTC goes up or down. Like if Bitcoin spikes up another 50% but Hive only does 25% that's around where we'd end up. My best trade ever was rotating Bitcoin into Hive in 2020 when we were stuck at 13 cents but BTC pulled an x4, which was obviously just crazy town.
Volatility trading between two assets I believe in has been one of the easiest ways for me to turn a profit gambling in these markets. Not only because the volatility tends to flip the other way, but also because psychologically even if I'm wrong I'm still left with bags that I can hodl and not worry about too much. I'm pretty convinced Hive will be back up to 2000 sats sooner or later considering we were at 5000 last cycle and the fundamentals of this cycle seem stronger to me. That being said I do have a cold storage BTC bag that I refuse to touch for anything but emergencies; no trading allowed.
Bitcoin.Dominance is... dominating?
It's honestly pretty surprising it keeps going like this. It fully looked like we were going to break down as early as January 2024 but we've maintained in the wedge for 18 months longer than expected... experiencing false breakouts in both directions, which is pretty nuts. I maintain that shapes like this tend to breakdown suddenly and unexpectedly taking the elevator down. When this breaks it will break hard, but again we have to escape the toxic $100k level... my guess for a while has been maintaining a price point over $120k before alts can really go nuts from displacement.
Displacement
Maximalists like to think that money from ETFs and corporate bankrolls (convertible bond Strategy) can't bleed into alts. It absolutely can and will do just that. If you plunk a bunch of rocks into a glass the rocks aren't going to escape but eventually the water will overflow.
Transaction fees
The cost to use Bitcoin and ETH is dirt cheap right now. Demand to do things on-chain is uncharacteristically low considering the price valuation. We have to chalk this up to the fact that a lot of the users being onboarded are doing so through the EFTs, other custodians, or by proxy via leveraged MSTR stock. When demand to put data on the chain skyrockts (as it always does) this makes an alt market much easier to occur as users start scrambling for the cheaper options.
HIVE/USD
On the dollar side of the equation Hive is testing MA(50) support, which is the last and lowest average on the chart. Below that we have support at both 22 cents and 20 cents, although I won't be betting on those outcomes unless BTC breaks down pretty hard from here. Tomorrow is the new-moon so perhaps we get one of those classic new-moon dips. Of course that would require it to breakout of the ascending channel BTC's been in for the last 5 weeks.
Personally I think it's extremely greedy thinking to hope that Hive will dip much lower than it is right this second. We essentially traded underneath all of our moving averages for 10 weeks straight and are finally making a comeback. Price looks pretty comfy in between the 25-30 cent range (in between the crabbing averages). We just hit the big golden cross a couple days ago, signaling any kind of dip could just be an easy-mode buying opportunity (aka now).
4-year cycle
We are mere months away from November 2025; a date that I've been waiting for, for literal years. There's not a whole lot of time to be betting bearish on a market like this. The market ascends a wall of worry, and I have been punished every time I have not kept the faith and stuck to the plan. Couldn't be me (this time anyway).
Fractal
Was that just the pump before the pump?
That's exactly what happened last cycle.
Does history rhyme?
Conclusion
25 cents is Hive's version of $58k. We hit it over and over again and just assume more of the same, but then it breaks out and leaves everyone in the dust hoping it dips "just one more time". This is that "one more time"... so just buy here if that's what you were planning to do anyway. Just kidding I already know everyone here is already completely tapped out. Don't worry I'll buy some extra to make up for it.
