Can't remember the last time the chart looked this good.
I mean I was telling everyone to "gas up the rocket" at $88k but now the chart looks even better. We got the last death-cross... and nothing happened (as predicted). And now the immediate follow up to the death cross is a double golden cross with the DMA(25) acting as the tip of the spear.
As a reminder, the 25/100 crosses are the default averages shown on sites like Binance. Everyone sees them, even the most novice of traders. That just happened today. When's the last time it happened? Back in September at $60k right before it pumped to $100k. All that's left now to complete that fractal is for the price to dip into the crux of the cross at $90k just like it did back in September.
I very much would like for this to happen and will open a big x5 long if it does. Bulls would love to see a confirmation of support somewhere rather than just floating weakly on the trendline. A sweet bear trap to $90k would do the trick just fine. Anything between $85k-$90k is a screaming buy at this point. Hell even the current price of $94k is an obvious buy if you're buying spot and staying away from leverage. We are clearly back in an uptrend, and who knows what will happen when we break $100k.
CME gap:
As luck would have it there's a sweet CME gap right around $91500, and these gaps have a tendency to fill eventually. With any luck it will fill within the next day or two, because I'd really like to start going long before the next full moon kicks in on Monday the 12th.
April showers bring May flowers
Q2 often proves to be a decent quarter for the market, but it has to be traded correctly... sort of. The saying is, "Sell in May and go away!" Interestingly enough this doesn't mean we expect a peak in May, but we expect extreme volatility in the summer. How long do we "go away" for? Until September. A nice dip in September is almost always a freebie entry-point. I make this trade every single year and I haven't lost once yet. It seems to work every single time; knock on wood.
How low will in go in September?
Well I mean if we are lucky it might only dip to something like $100k or even higher depending on the peak of the summer rally. A pump to $130k with a 30% retrace to $100k wouldn't be too surprising. Honestly I'm hoping the run will be better than that... as this would be pretty conservative for a "rally" during the bull market year of the cycle. A spike to $200k with a retrace to $140k would be pretty badass and all but guarantee the rampaging alt market we so desperately need. Send it higher.
https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1918701820223869009
BTC.Dominance
One of the cycle-trader analysts I follow, RektCapital, keeps posting this dominance chart and this idea that Bitcoin is going to spike up to 71% dominance compared to alts. Personally I think this is pretty ridiculous but we are already around 65% so what's a few more points at this stage? Either way we should know for sure in a couple months as we are running out of time for cycle-theory to play out this way. 2025 only has so many weeks left in it, and these are monthly candles.
Personally I'm still convinced we'll get a breakdown in dominance and start the alt market around $120k when everyone collectively realizes that the toxic liquidity void of $100k has been vanquished by the bulls and we can finally put that 5 years of laser-eyed history behind us. Onward and upward!
Hive
Hive got back down to 250 sats per coin and the funding rate is negative on perpetuals contracts. I've started longing it again at 24 cents for the yield and the simple fact that we were just as 30 cents and this seems like an irrational overcorrection.
https://x.com/coinbureau/status/1919406737104556090
Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline to insane lows we haven't seen since before 2017. However this is nothing new and parroting the "supply shock" narrative is something we seem to have been doing for years now. Eventually it will actually happen but until such times this metric seems to be noise with no real signal behind it. Slowly, then all at once.
LEO onboards Digibyte
Digibyte is an old-school POW token back from 2014 that uses 5 different mining algorithms. I still have a few thousand tokens from back in the day sitting on my phone. This tactic of onboarding old-school potentially-forgotten communities to inleo is an interesting one. Curious to see how it all pans out.
TCY launch
It's May 5th and you know what that means... Edicted is getting airdropped $19k worth of bad debt as a new shitcoin called Thorchain Yield (TCY). Starting price of this token will be 10 cents and I won't be made whole on the bad debt until it reaches $1. The airdrop will happen later today after 4 PM, so I'll perhaps give an update tomorrow as to how it all went.
If I get the chance to buy TCY at the opening bid price of 10 cents I'll probably gamble on it, but so many more people within the community are having the exact same brainfart. It's highly likely that sniper bots are going to scoop up all the tokens they can get upto something like 20 cents unless debtors are actually willing to exit low and sell their bad debt for 10 cents on the dollar like an actual collection agency would. We'll just have to wait and see how it turns out. I have high hopes for the launch, but there's a thin line between hope and cope, amirite?
Conclusion
Exciting day in the market and everything is looking pretty great. Market sentiment has gone from extremely fearful to a bit more neutral, so in my opinion it's time to get hyperbullish for summer before the rest of the plebs realize the full potential of this environment.
