It's time to have a look at the market again as it's Sunday. A lot has happened lately, but I haven't had my eyes on $HIVE, so today is the time, to see what we can expect next week, in theory as only God knows what's going to happen.
Unfortunately $HIVE took a hit this week, reacted to the Geo-political events happening this week. On the monthly time frame, price went from a doji, that the candle looked last week, to a bearish candle. It's the middle of the month, we still have two weeks till the candle close, so the levels to watch are the same as I mentioned in my previous posts.
On the weekly time frame, last week we got a doji, which means indecision and price closed below mid-range. This week so far we have a bearish engulfing candle and even though the candle is not closed, it'll be closed in around 14 hours, chances to get a bullish candle are slim in my opinion. At the time of writing, price swept liquidity below the swing low at $0.2204 and it is below mid-range. If we don't get a bounce here, the next level I'm looking at is $0.1775 and the swing lows below this level, marked on my chart.
In case of of a reversal here and considerable strength, I'm looking for price to sweep $0.2844 and then $0.3006, which is the swing high at the moment.
On the daily time frame, price looks heavy. Price swept liquidity from the $0.2166 level, created a swing low at $0.2089 and it looks like it is consolidating here a little, till Monday at least, when liquidity possibly comes in and we can see some volatility.
In case of more weakness, we can expect price to sweep $0.2089, after which could come $0.1848 and potentially $0.1775, which level should hold.
In case of a bounce here and for bullish continuation, price needs to invert the bearish gap above, marked with yellow, which means close above and hold that level. Levels I'm watching on the upside are $0.25, which is the first swing high, after which can come $0.2699, $0.2784, $0.2844 and ultimately the key level I've been mentioning, $0.3006.
On a more granular scale, on the h4 chart price looks really heavy. It's the weekend, traditional markets are closed and unless something unexpected happens, there's not much to move price, but we still have to know what to look at.
At the time of writing, price is above the bullish fair value gap, marked with green on my chart, which has been holding price the past couple of days. Looking left, you can see there's a bearish gap formed two days ago, which is not marked on my chart, because it has been rebalanced till the swing high at $0.2219, but has not been inverted yet. For bullish continuation, price needs to close above and hold $0.2235, which is the top of the bearish FVG and then $0.2335 could be next. However, if you as me, first we go lower, which means sweeping $0.2124, $0.2089 and possibly $0.2071.
$BTC on the daily time frame looks heavy too. The news of the current war (although it's not new at all) between Israel and Iran caused the drop below mid-range and the danger of going lower is not over yet. The bearish gap marked with yellow on the chart is capping the market at the moment and sweeping $102,626 is a question of WHEN, not IF, if you ask me. In case that happens, I'm expecting a bounce from that level, but if there's more weakness in the market, price can sweep $100,350 as well.
Today it's Sunday and as I said, traditional markets being closed, there's not much going on in the market, but this can change rapidly and next week is going to be bumpy in my opinion.
Next week we have 2 red folder days, of which Wednesday will be of utmost importance as we have unemployment claims (we don't have the forecast yet) and FOMC as well. I'd be careful, especially with high leverage.
However, this is not all bad. Those who are expecting $HIVE to go to $50 and $BTC to blow off the roof are most likely super disappointed, but these are times that bring opportunities as well, if you're willing to open your eyes and see as well, not just look out of your head. This is a good time to accumulate, to convert your $HBD into $HIVE and make some profit, buy the dip in case of $BTC and $HIVE as well, if you believe it's going to go higher and so on. Please note, this is not financial advice, I'm just listing a few possibilities, but the ultimate decision is yours.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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